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Pro Sports Wrap - Sports Personality of the Day:Patrick Marleau

When these two AFC North heavyweights met in the first week of the season, I was way off in the Ravens surprised and unrepeatable drubbing of the Steelers. Since then, the Ravens are coming off of a devastating loss and a game that was much closer than it should have been. And this was to a team that the Steelers easily handled the week before. Last Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger put in an absolutely dominating performance to shred the Patriots and cement the team's status as contenders.


The Steelers have one of the worst lines in the NFL, but they showed signs of life against the Pats. Although their opponent's interior pass rush played well, the rest of the guys weren't quite as effective going after the quarterback. Still, right tackle Marcus Gilbert absolutely dominated, and I don't recall him ever putting his quarterback under pressure. He was also a force in run blocking, but that may be due to a very favorable matchup against the mightily struggling Rob Ninkovich. Right guard Ramon Foster wasn't quite as good in run blocking, but I also believe that he didn't give up pressure at all and was a key cog in a surprisingly stable right side.


However, the left side is still a mess with Jonathan Scott and Chris Kemoeatu. The left guard was beaten quite handily by the Pats defensive tackles, and Scott might just be the worst left tackle in the NFL right now. Props to J'Marcus Webb and Charlie Johnson who are in serious consideration for this "award".

Things look dire when you look at the two monsters they are slated against; Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata. After a surprisingly anonymous display against the Jags, Ngata showed the Cards whose boss in an inspired display that showed us why he gets his contract. A common misconception is that Suggs is an outside linebacker, but he actually plays most of his snaps at defensive end. Not only is he one of the best pass rushers in the game, but Suggs might just be one of the five best players against the run. The sleeping giant was always solid this season, but he has really turned up the heat the past two weeks.

The Patriots were taken down by the Heath Miller show, and I expect him to be a factor in this game. Ray Lewis is a pretty good player in coverage, but I trust that Ben will find the soft spots- like he did last week- and hit up Miller. Mike Wallace was focused on heavily in the team's last game, but I think this deep threat will have a dagger or two in this one.

I have absolutely no idea as to why Cary Williams is the starter right now.
His display in the last game that these two teams met in pretty much sums up his overall ability; he stinks. Williams gives up far too much space to receivers, and that's not exactly helpful when going up against the best deep threat in the NFL (yeah, I said it). Look, Chris Carr and rookie Jimmy Smith are better players in just about every way. Carr embodies the description of what a solid cornerback is, and Smith has the potential to be a difference-maker in the secondary.

Michael Oher owned last week, and he has been a player who I have often criticized. However, he didn't give up much pressure at all and had arguably his best game in pass pro as a pro. Marshal Yanda and Matt Birk are two of the best in the business, but I can't say the same about left tackle Bryant McKinnie. If Ben Grubbs doesn't play, Andre Gurode will be a severe downgrade at the position. Although he was fantastic the last few years with the Cowboys, Gurode has been stinking it up as a Raven.

The good news is that the Steelers defensive line hasn't been lighting it up this season. While Casey Hampton has been average and is consistently not bad, only Brett Keisel has made much of a difference for the team this season on the line.

An even bigger concern is the fact that James Harrison will miss yet another game. The best linebacker in the NFL, Harrison is obviously a huge key to what the Steelers do on defense. What makes things even worse is the team's moronic decision with regards to who they have replaced him with. Although Lawrence Timmons is one of the best inside linebackers in the NFL, the same cannot be said for his ability on the outside. Simply put; he can't rush the passer at all. I think he has only had a couple of pressures at the position, and that's simply pathetic.

It's not that he is in a funk; it's just that Pittsburgh isn't utilizing him correctly. Thus, he is struggling because he can't rush the passer at a position where that skill is put at a premium. Timmons is still making plays in run defense and hasn't been a liability in coverage, but the Steelers are best served moving him back to the inside and playing Justin Worilds. The drop off in quality from Worilds to Foote in the starting line-up is worth it. The good news is that LaMarr Woodley has been a revelation since Harrison's injury and has been one of the most productive OLBs in the NFL since that point.

I really don't get Joe Flacco right now, and his inconsistency is frustrating. This game really depends on Ike Taylor. Although penalties have been an enormous problem for him this season, he has still shown that he is one of the premier cover corners in the league. In fact, he is the only guy in the Steelers secondary who can take a competent receiver mano a mano. If he can effectively seal Anquan Boldin, then this is a win for the Steelers. If Boldin gets seven catches and rips off some big ones, then this probably isn't a win for the Steelers.

I really don't care for anybody else in the wideouts vs. secondary battle, aside from Troy Polamalu and Torrey Smith. The rookie wideout is a deep threat who doesn't do much else, and it's up to Polamalu to make sure he doesn't burn the Steelers. Do you really trust Bryant McFadden to prevent Smith from making a big play? Let's not kid ourselves, because this game rides on Flacco as it does for every quarterback in every game. However, it seems to me like this is a statement game for Flacco; we will see who he is as a quarterback.

As far as the running game goes, I think Ray Rice will be able to make himself a factor. The Steelers run defense hasn't looked impenetrable right now, so it won't take a Trojan Horse to get past the gates of Troy. No, Rice's pure ability as a runner will be enough for him to remain productive. It seems likely that he will be able to snare a few balls in as a receiver, but I don't expect him to own the Steelers. However, it is feasible to think that he will gain 80 or so yards on the ground.

Even though I like the Ravens defense more than the Steelers, there are too many "What ifs?" with regard to the Ravens offense. We have no idea as to what we will get from Joe Flacco. This is going to be a very close game, and I am going with the team who has the quarterback that I believe in. Gimme Ben Roethlisberger.
Revenge
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10/2011 RB Rankings

October 25th 2011 14:59
1. Adrian Peterson- And you thought I was going to put DeMarco Murray here. Seriously though, there is no back out there better than Peterson. He's everything you want in a pure rusher with his versatility in that he can blow by you, juke you out, and run you down 'till you fall flat on your face (the song is Madden 2003's "Suck It Up").

2. Jamaal Charles- The ACL tear sucks, and Charles is a monster who averaged only about six yards per carry last year.

3. Darren McFadden- Yeah, I'm boarding this train until it hits 'Frisco, cause he is tearing it up. He's nicked up too, but that doesn't deter from his overall value.

4. Arian Foster- He doesn't give a damn about your fantasy team either.

5. Chris Johnson- He's still top 5, but I've always thought he was a tad overrated.

6. Maurice Jones-Drew- A versatile back to say the least.

7. Ray Rice- Does a ton of damage with his hands and can make cuts inside; top back.

8. DeAngelo Williams- Too elusive for their not to be a bounce-back.

9. Fred Jackson- Good hands, and great overall ability. Finally getting some press thanks to a line that suddenly figured out how to block.

10. LeGarrette Blount- This is all purely based on skill, and Blount is extremely talented. He is so agile and strong that he's a new beast to defend against; it's amazing to think what he could do with an average line in front of him.

11. Matt Forte- While catching is his forte, he can run and is the team's focal point offensively; pay him.

12. Michael Turner- I wish I had him higher, but 12 is still really good.

13. Ryan Mathews- I am fully on the bandwagon.

14. Ahmad Bradshaw- Catches, blocks, and runs well.

15. Frank Gore- Is more effective when he doesn't get too many carries, as he is extremely explosive should get 15 carries to have optimal impact. He can't take the wear and tear very well, but he does add value in the receiving game.

16. Peyton Hillis- Has been invisible this year (not in a good way) and fumbles too much because of an unbalanced rushing style, but he does possess great blocking and has surprisingly good hands out of the backfield.

17. LeSean McCoy- Brings so much to the table as a pass-catcher and runs effectively.

18. Jonathan Stewart- Could afford to be a little higher, but he is an elusive back who is among the best ten pure rushers in the league.

19. Brandon Jacobs- Was insane last year and is one of the most punishing backs out there.

20. Steven Jackson- Workhorse.

21. Rashard Mendenhall- A little overrated but still an effective back who plays behind a horrible line.

22. Ryan Grant- The statistics don't always favor him, because people don't always look at the right stats. He is a solid player who gets the yardage his team needs.

23. Tim Hightower- Showing that my running back stat isn't full of crap.

24. Cedric Benson- He is an overrated back who is still solid but not as good as people think.

25. Joseph Addai- Underrated back who struggles with injuries but plays pretty well on the field. He is their only hope in the running game.

26. Chris Wells- I'm not ready to bring him into the top 20 yet, as he needs to show me some consistency first.

27. Michael Bush- Solid, bruising back.

28. James Starks- He really likes making me eat crow.

29. Chris Ivory- I think this guy can play and needs to get some time.

30. DeMarco Murray- I'm in but not all in.

31. BenJarvus Green-Ellis- Sold, albeit unspectacular moving-chains back.

32. Ben Tate- Explosive but not there yet.

33. Ryan Torain- Mike Shanahan and I know that he is better than people thought last year.

34. Mike Goodson- Man, the Panthers have a lot of wealth at the position.

35. Felix Jones- This is on the basis of his receiving skills and ability to break off the big play.

36. Mark Ingram- Better than the stats indicated.

37. Isaac Redman- Finally breaking out of the underrated shell.

38. Jackie Battle- Believe Chiefs, believe. No more Thomas Jones.

39. Marshawn Lynch- When he goes beast mode; it's over. Unfortunately, he doesn't go beast mode enough.

40. Pierre Thomas- New Orleans hasn't been treating him well recently.
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10/2011 Player Profile: Ray Rice

October 15th 2011 17:01
When talking about elite running backs, it is imperative to mention the name "Ray Rice". He is the focal point of a contender's offense, and I honestly hope that you don't think Joe Flacco is the team's best offensive player. That honor goes to Rice, or the very underrated Marshal Yanda. In any case, Rice is one of the best and most versatile backs in the NFL right now, and he currently has a 52.9 RB Efficiency score.

According to Advanced NFL Stats, Rice currently has the 6th highest EPA among running backs this season (13th last season), and his DYAR (provided by Football Outsider's) was 13th in the NFL last season. However, Rice is a better player than the statistics indicate, because we haven't taken into account that he is one of the best receiving running backs in the league.

A dual threat, Ray Rice is a more than capable aerial threat and has the uncanny ability to move the chains by both running the football and catching passes from Flacco. This versatility separates him from other running backs around the league, and it vaults him into the elite class of the best ten players at his position. There aren't many running backs who are the offense's main attacking outlet anymore.

While he is not quite as good as guys like MJD, AP, and JC, Ray Rice is still one of the best running backs in the game today due to his ability to make an impact in more than one way. He was disappointing last season after a monstrous 2009 campaign, in which only CJ2K had a better season, but he has played well thus far in 2011.
Rutgers seems like a past life
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2011 Week 4 Preview: Jets and Ravens

October 2nd 2011 13:29
This right here is definitely the game of the week, and it features Rex Ryan, Bart Scott, and Jim Leonhard going at it against their former team. This is a matchup between two contenders who have quite a bit to prove heading into this matchup. The Ravens need to show that they are indeed for real, and the Jets really have to show that they aren't all mouth after getting run all over by Darren McFadden.

In big injury news, Nick Mangold is listed as questionable for this game, and this actually does mean quite a bit. Not only is he one of the best centers in the game, but his replacement Colin Baxter is one of the worst run-blocking offensive linemen in the league. He gets pushed around like crazy, and that more than "makes up for" his great work in pass protection. It's known fact that run blocking is far more important for centers than pass protection, and Baxter has proven to be a liability on the line overall.

While Ladarius Webb and- to a greater extent- Ed Reed have played well in the secondary, Cary Williams has been absolutely terrible this season. If you watched that Steelers game, you would pretty much know all that you need to know about this guy; he gives receivers far too much space.

I could see this being a very easy game for Haloti Ngata in run defense against Baxter, and Terrell Suggs is another high-impact player who should have a high impact in this contest. Dustin Keller has already been a force on offense for the Jets this season, and Mark Sanchez needs to continue hitting him up for the Jets to remain successful on offense. I really don't see them getting much on the Ravens defense though, and I have always been critical of Sanchez.

The Ravens tackles have been absolutely horrendous this season, but they are lucky that the Jets don't have any good pass rushers. Bryan Thomas barely qualifies as adequate, and I don't think anyone will be mistaking Aaron Maybin for DeMarcus Ware any time soon.

The Ravens interior, however, is much better and has two of the best in the business in Marshal Yanda and Matt Birk. I think Ray Rice should be okay in this game, but don't expect him to play like he has through the first three weeks. Even though they got run down by McFadden, this Jets run defense is a tough matchup.

While Lee Evans has been nothing short of disappointing and awful through his first three weeks in a Ravens uniform, Torrey Smith was exactly the opposite last week. Still, I really don't see Flacco being all that good against a very solid Jets secondary. This game is definitely going to be a battle of defenses.

For the reason stated above in that last sentence, I am going with the Ravens. Although both teams are about even defensively, the Ravens are actually good offensively. Even though I would probably take the Jets wideouts over the Ravens group, Joe Flacco and Ray Rice easily trump Sanchez and Shonn Greene.

Prediction: Ravens 20 Jets 14

MVP: Terrell Suggs (Wayne Hunter? What a joke of a tackle.)

Other picks

Cowboys over Lions
Steelers over Texans
Panthers over Bears
Chiefs over Vikings
Bills over Bengals
Titans over Browns
Redskins over Rams
Eagles over 49ers
Saints over Jaguars
Falcons over Seahawks
Giants over Cardinals
Patriots over Raiders
Packers over Broncos
Chargers over Dolphins
Bucs over Colts (How weird would that be five years ago?)
Terrell Suggs
Heeelloooo Wayne Hunter
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9/2011 Team Scope: Baltimore Ravens

September 26th 2011 14:44
The Ravens are now 2-1 after absolutely shredding the St. Louis Rams 37-7, after coming off of a very disappointing game against the Tennessee Titans. However, that loss was probably a really bad hangover from that shocking blowout victory over their sworn enemy. Looks like a dose of greasy food- an upset loss- really does work for hangovers, as the Ravens tore the Rams with their mighty claws (Torrey Smith).

Yeah, fantasy owners are now familiar with that guy (not to be confused with THAT GUY). I hate fantasy, but even I have to admit that Torrey Smith was fantastic yesterday. The numbers don't lie, as he had five catches on eight targets for a 62.5% Catch Rate. That is made all the more impressive when you consider that his Deep % was 75 (six targets of 15 yards or more). All those stats add up to a 19 point yards per target average, and arguably the best performance by a wideout this week. According to the fantasy numbers (which I hate), Wes Welker and Smith are tied at the top of the leaderboards for all players with 34 points a piece


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To qualify a running back must have at least 100 carries. Thanks guys for your feedback, and feel free to comment and criticize. Do you think I should give an extra bonus to the guys with more carries? It seems as if the players in the 100-199 range have the advantage, but this is- after all- and efficiency stat. (The groupings should not be interpreted as tiers, as they are only used to make it look less messy)


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I have finally formulated a decent looking total efficiency statistic to evaluate running backs. There is a huge craze over quarterback stats, but I decided to come up with a simple, yet efficient running back stat. It isn't great, but I think it is better than what we've had. It isn't objective only because of the way I account for the run blocking variable.

Yards per carry is the single most important statistic for a running back, and it's efficiency in its simplest point. However, running backs who carry the rock more tend to have lower yards per carry totals. Also, backs with poor lines- in terms of run blocking- in front of them take hits in that department. YPC also doesn't take into account fumbles or touchdowns either. Although both of those factors aren't as important as once thought, they are necessary to come up with a running back stat that can actually work


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