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Pro Sports Wrap - Sports Personality of the Day:Tony Romo

The Desk: QB Efficiency Statistic

January 27th 2011 15:21
One of my friends has proposed a statistic that I would like to refine, with the help of you guys. He calls it QB Efficiency. He basically took a QB's yards per attempted pass, multiplied it by the number of touchdowns, divided it by the number of picks, and used 62 percent completed passes as par with anything over 62 percent counting to the QB's total, and anything lower counting against that QB. It is QB rating with a twist. A QB's yard per carry is added, and a QB's rushing touchdowns are with the passing touchdowns. A QB's fumbles are also subtracted. Again, I want you guys to also help refine what he has used.


Let us use Rodgers, Vick, and Brady as our three examples. Brady has a 75, Rodgers has a 29.4, and Vick has a 36.3. This seems like a truly messed up statistic because it favors certain statistics far too much. Now, let us change it by using interception rate and touchdown rate. Vick now has a 33.75 as we have now only add rushing touchdowns instead of multiplying them. Rodgers has a 30.6, and Brady still has a 75. Either this statistic overvalues certain facets of the game, or there is a true trend here. Let's investigate further.

According to QB rating, the order is fine except for Vick and Rodgers. This happens even though Rodgers has the better net running points by 0.8 The only category in which Vick bests Rodgers in the passing portion of this statistic is interceptions. This means that we are putting too much weight into picks, therefore, we must decrease the importance of interceptions.

So now, let us multiply the INT% by .75 to cut its level of importance. This gives Rodgers a 38.1 and Vick a 42.9. All that addition did was make it worse. So all we did was prove that our second rendition of the formula was the most accurate, and that Vick had the better statistical year than Rodgers with Brady crushing all competition in the stat world.

Michael Vick
9 Rushing TDs

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Comments
6 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by Gabe Lock

January 27th 2011 21:01
Liking your last two posts about QB stats. QB rating needs to be fixed sooner rather than later.

Comment by nbageek

January 28th 2011 00:32
Yeah, good stuff. Enabling us to see different wasys to look at quarterbacks is good.

Comment by Jeff Glade

January 28th 2011 02:32
Quarterback is such a difficult position to rank because they all do so many different things, with quarterbacks like Manning and Rodgers throwing a lot of passes downfield, Brady throwing a lot of dink and dunk passes and other quarterbacks spending most of their time handing off the ball or throwing screen passes. How to rank them all fairly is a huge challenge, so good luck with the new system.

Comment by Michael Wasco

January 28th 2011 03:12
I played with this some - the big driver of this stat is the TD to INT ratio. Vick and Brady were tops percentage wise of TDs to picks, Brady an astounding 9:1. So Brady could have thrown for 4.2 yards per attempt and still led the league tremendously in this new stat. I compared a much wider array of QBs, and noticed that the ratings were in line with the QB Passer rating, with a few exceptions. Those running QBs got a boost, while true passers got no benefit from the run. Hence, Josh Freeman out-performed Ben Roethlisberger on the basis of more TDs, more YPG and less fumbles. But still interesting. I'll have to think on this.

Comment by Joe Soriano

January 28th 2011 06:44
Yeah, this statistic is really raw. I am thinking of making deep% a statistical modifier. Deep% is defined as the percentage of the number of pass attempts over 15 yards. Ben Roethlisberger leads all QBs with at least 10 games played in this statistic. Tom Brady and Sam Bradford are both near the bottom of the list.

Comment by Mike Cortright

January 28th 2011 21:50
Joe,

I really like the way you are using statistics and not the basic statistics of points per game plus opponents points per game allowed divided by two gives me team (A) score. I use a lot of statistics when I create a line for my NBA and College basketball games. I am really big on incorporating offense and defense efficiency in my lines along with possessions. I do incorporate a few other things but I donít want to give away all my secrets.  People need to understand that any team can average 95 points per game but the efficiency comes into play how effective they are with the ball and how effective their defense is.

This is really good stuff man I hope you keep posting things like this. I donít know how strong you are with statistics and what your background is with it but you might be hearing from me for some pointers come baseball season and working some things like this into formulas for baseball game predictions.


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