Joe Soriano
O.J. Lewis7/30 MLB Rumors: Ubaldo Jimenez
July 30th 2011 14:20
Ubaldo Jimenez is the best pitcher up for grabs right now, and I don't think much of an argument can be made for anybody else. He is going to be extremely difficult to get, and he probably won't be traded at all. In any case, add the Detroit Tigers to the list of teams in the hunt for Jimenez. The Reds, Indians, Yankees, and Red Sox are also interested.
Rockies
The Rockies are going to inflate Jimenez's price because they really don't need to move him. If they see an offer that meets what they want, then they are obviously going to pull the trigger. I don't expect him to be traded because he is their best pitcher.
Tigers
The Tigers are interested in Ubaldo and Jason Marquis right now, both pitchers who have played with the Rockies in their careers. Marquis is currently with the Nats and is having a poor year. The Tigers wouldn't have to give much to get Marquis, but they also wouldn't get much out of him. I think it's in their best interest to go for Ubaldo, but I don't think they end up getting him. The price is going to be too high.
Reds
The Reds are pretty much out of contention in the NL Central, so I don't think they should be buyers right now. However, their rotation is poor and adding a player of Ubaldo Jimenez's caliber would be immense. They have a lot of nice prospects, but I don't know if they would be willing to part with any of them. On a side note, the Reds really should ship Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Devin Mesoraco is ready to get a shot in the Bigs, and I don't think a possible contender like the Giants wanting to continue to start Eli Whiteside behind the plate.
Indians
While Cleveland could use a high-level starter, I don't think they will get him in the end. They have the prospects, but they probably aren't going to be aggressive in getting him.
Red Sox
Of all the teams here, I think the Red Sox will be the most aggressive in pursuing Jimenez. Boston knows they can go all the way, and Ubaldo will be a nice addition to their pitching staff. He can give them that lift, and he will also give the Sox a really nasty rotation. Boston has the prospects, the money, and they are definitely willing to get him. If Ubaldo Jimenez goes anywhere, it's going to be the Red Sox.
Yankees
Even though the Yankees are considered to be in the hunt, I highly doubt they end up with Ubaldo. They are concerned that he currently has an injury. While Jimenez denies those claims, the Yankees still aren't going to offer up much. They feel that the price is too high and that they don't need him. I really don't see Ubaldo Jimenez in the Yankees' future.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Although Jimenez's ERA is over four, his FIP is at 3.48 thanks to bad luck and the ballpark he pitches in. Even though Fenway is a tough place to pitch, it certainly is better than Coors. On the other hand, the lineups he'll face in the AL- especially the AL East- will be much more difficult.
Although the basic stats will say otherwise, Ubaldo has had a decent year so far. He's cut down on his walks, but his strikeout rate has also gone down. He has also allowed more homers and also has a higher batting average allowed. Now this is where the bad luck comes in. His BABIP and HR/FB rate are significantly higher than his career averages, and this is why his FIP is at a healthy 3.48.
The problem though is that Ubaldo has allowed too many liners and is not getting enough grounders. Another thing is that his popout rate is much lower than it once was, which means that hitters are hitting his flyballs further. We can see the regression in Jimenez's play since the first half of last season, and this means that Jimenez is slightly overrated. He's still a decent pitcher, but he's no ace. This means that he is best suited on a team like Boston where is going to be the second or third starter.
Is Ubaldo really injured? The Yankees think so, and there may be something to these thoughts. The velocity on his fastball is currently at 93.4, and that is well below his career average of 95.4. Jimenez's fastball was clocked in at 96.1 the past two seasons. He is throwing his fastball almost two percentage points less than last year, which brings me to believe that he is either injured or overworked.
I don't think Jimenez is overworked because he threw 198 innings in his first full season and 218 in his second. He was fine after those years and was throwing his fastball the hardest it ever has been in his second and third seasons. Maybe it has all caught up to him, or maybe there is something more to this story.
While looking through the advanced stats, I have spotted another problem. Ubaldo has been throwing his changeup this season more than he has any other year, and it is a significant change. While it's still been effective, it hasn't been as effective as in years past. When you throw more changeups and have a fastball that is slower, you're not going to fool many hitters.
Last year, his fastball was lively and was destroying hitters. This year, it's only been slightly above average. His slider has lost all that nastiness from the last two seasons, and this also leads me to believe that something is wrong with Ubaldo. I think he has an injury or is overworked, because the telltale signs are there.
Rockies
The Rockies are going to inflate Jimenez's price because they really don't need to move him. If they see an offer that meets what they want, then they are obviously going to pull the trigger. I don't expect him to be traded because he is their best pitcher.
Tigers
The Tigers are interested in Ubaldo and Jason Marquis right now, both pitchers who have played with the Rockies in their careers. Marquis is currently with the Nats and is having a poor year. The Tigers wouldn't have to give much to get Marquis, but they also wouldn't get much out of him. I think it's in their best interest to go for Ubaldo, but I don't think they end up getting him. The price is going to be too high.
Reds
The Reds are pretty much out of contention in the NL Central, so I don't think they should be buyers right now. However, their rotation is poor and adding a player of Ubaldo Jimenez's caliber would be immense. They have a lot of nice prospects, but I don't know if they would be willing to part with any of them. On a side note, the Reds really should ship Ramon Hernandez to the Giants. Devin Mesoraco is ready to get a shot in the Bigs, and I don't think a possible contender like the Giants wanting to continue to start Eli Whiteside behind the plate.
Indians
While Cleveland could use a high-level starter, I don't think they will get him in the end. They have the prospects, but they probably aren't going to be aggressive in getting him.
Red Sox
Of all the teams here, I think the Red Sox will be the most aggressive in pursuing Jimenez. Boston knows they can go all the way, and Ubaldo will be a nice addition to their pitching staff. He can give them that lift, and he will also give the Sox a really nasty rotation. Boston has the prospects, the money, and they are definitely willing to get him. If Ubaldo Jimenez goes anywhere, it's going to be the Red Sox.
Yankees
Even though the Yankees are considered to be in the hunt, I highly doubt they end up with Ubaldo. They are concerned that he currently has an injury. While Jimenez denies those claims, the Yankees still aren't going to offer up much. They feel that the price is too high and that they don't need him. I really don't see Ubaldo Jimenez in the Yankees' future.
Ubaldo Jimenez
Although Jimenez's ERA is over four, his FIP is at 3.48 thanks to bad luck and the ballpark he pitches in. Even though Fenway is a tough place to pitch, it certainly is better than Coors. On the other hand, the lineups he'll face in the AL- especially the AL East- will be much more difficult.
Although the basic stats will say otherwise, Ubaldo has had a decent year so far. He's cut down on his walks, but his strikeout rate has also gone down. He has also allowed more homers and also has a higher batting average allowed. Now this is where the bad luck comes in. His BABIP and HR/FB rate are significantly higher than his career averages, and this is why his FIP is at a healthy 3.48.
The problem though is that Ubaldo has allowed too many liners and is not getting enough grounders. Another thing is that his popout rate is much lower than it once was, which means that hitters are hitting his flyballs further. We can see the regression in Jimenez's play since the first half of last season, and this means that Jimenez is slightly overrated. He's still a decent pitcher, but he's no ace. This means that he is best suited on a team like Boston where is going to be the second or third starter.
Is Ubaldo really injured? The Yankees think so, and there may be something to these thoughts. The velocity on his fastball is currently at 93.4, and that is well below his career average of 95.4. Jimenez's fastball was clocked in at 96.1 the past two seasons. He is throwing his fastball almost two percentage points less than last year, which brings me to believe that he is either injured or overworked.
I don't think Jimenez is overworked because he threw 198 innings in his first full season and 218 in his second. He was fine after those years and was throwing his fastball the hardest it ever has been in his second and third seasons. Maybe it has all caught up to him, or maybe there is something more to this story.
While looking through the advanced stats, I have spotted another problem. Ubaldo has been throwing his changeup this season more than he has any other year, and it is a significant change. While it's still been effective, it hasn't been as effective as in years past. When you throw more changeups and have a fastball that is slower, you're not going to fool many hitters.
Last year, his fastball was lively and was destroying hitters. This year, it's only been slightly above average. His slider has lost all that nastiness from the last two seasons, and this also leads me to believe that something is wrong with Ubaldo. I think he has an injury or is overworked, because the telltale signs are there.
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