I was having an argument with one of my friends today that started after he was gloating about how he predicted the NBA Finals correctly. He was talking about how wrong John Hollinger, the Truehoop experts, my other friend, and I were. I then went on to explain that analysis is more important on correctly predicting an outcome.

Anybody can guess the outcome of a series or game just by randomly picking. What takes skill is being able to properly analyze two teams and giving legit reasons why you think this team will win and how you think the series will shape up. The experts over at ESPN use complex statistical analysis and look at team strategies when predicting what will happen.

People that picked the Heat in this series, like myself, could never have accounted for the fact that the best player in the NBA would be so poor in the fourth quarter of several very close games. LeBron didn't take charge of the game, and that in itself was a factor that screwed us over. Like, how are we supposed to know that a guy who came up so big against the Bulls in crunch time would suddenly turn into the NBA's version of Mr. Irrelevant when the game mattered the most.

I know one guy who picked the Mavericks for the sole reason that he hates LeBron and the Heat. He was also gloating over his prediction, but his reason had nothing to do with the game itself. A lot of people against my argument would point to the fact that LeBron is a "choker". I don't believe that a player with the second highest shooting percentage in crunch time during the playoffs (out of current players with at least four shots made) is a "choker". He had a bad series that we can chalk up to as simply baffling.

Being correct is good, but the key thing is being able to properly analyze. Anybody can say something and be right, but what is truly impressive is being able to talk about and see things that others miss. A lot of the guys that got the overall prediction wrong were able to get small predictions right such as Wade taking charge, Marion being immense, and the fact that Peja Stojakovic sucks and Corey Brewer needs playing time.

Finals MVP

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Posted By: Joe Soriano - Category: NBA, Heat, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Mavs, Dirk Nowitzki, Corey Brewer, Shawn Marion, Peja Stojakovic

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2010 NBA Finals Preview

May 31st 2011 15:15

This is a rematch that one man has relished more than anyone else. This is a shot at redemption, most likely the last one, for one of the NBA's biggest stars. This series dates back to 2006 when the Dallas Mavericks blew a 2-0 series lead against Dwayne Wade and Shaq in a series that featured an epic collapse from Dirk Nowitzki. The man who is perhaps the greatest player in Mavericks' history has took it upon himself to lead his team back to this moment. Will they get their vengeance. One thing's clear, they won't go down without a fight.

The 2006 Finals have haunted this team ever since, and the word "choker" has long been associated with the name Dirk Nowitzki. That is, until this season. The man largely blamed for what happened in 2006 and the loss to the eighth seeded Warriors in 2007. Nowitzki scored just eight points on a team that won 67 games and was considered to be one of the best teams in recent memory. That's all behind the man born in Wurzburg.

It's difficult to describe the drastic difference in Dirk's postseason play that happened this year. The shot were finally falling and the legendary work ethic was paying it's dividends on basketball's biggest stage. He and the Mavs didn't wilt when the Blazers tied the series 2-2 when the Mavs were up 2-0. It seemed like deja vu, but the Mavs showed they were a changed team and won the next two games.

The Lakers were supposed to be easily into the Finals after the Spurs were bounced out by the Grizzlies. The Lakers imploded, and the Mavs exploded on their way to a surprising sweep. The Mavs showed they were for real, and Dirk Nowitzki had the series of a lifetime. He obliterated the Thunder and had the highest true shooting percentage in a playoff game in NBA history. Dirk was brutally efficient, got to the line with ease, and turned in a performance that has skyrocketed his reputation.

The Heat's journey to this point has been well-documented, and LeBron James cemented himself as the NBA's best player after a playoff series against the Bulls that we can simply chalk up as being dominant. There really is no other word to use to describe the clutch shots, the efficiency, and the remarkable defense against the league's MVP who actually wasn't my MVP.

This is tantalizing matchup that we need to savor in. It's so captivating because of the storylines surrounding this game. It's the Big Three trying to prove the doubters and "haters"- one doubter being Mavs' owner Mark Cuban- that they are the best team in the league.

So far in the playoffs, Chris Bosh is easily the best player that Dirk Nowitzki will be guarded by. He's far more athletic than Gasol, Ibaka, and Aldridge as a defender. I think Nowitzki wins this battle though. Shawn Marion played superb defense against Durant, but LeBron isn't going to be pushed around as easily. Again, Marion is better at defending LeBron than the guys he has faced in the playoffs right now. Deng and Iguodala play good D, but they aren't as physical on the ball as Marion. But nobody can guard LeBron at this point.

The Mavs don't really have anyone to take on D-Wade either. Jason Kidd has turned into a good defensive player, but Wade is too fast and is incredible at attacking the rim. I don't see how Kidd can contain him, unless if Wade gets gassed out like he did against the Bulls. I doubt that's going to happen.

These are two unquestionably talented teams that fully deserve to be at this point. Sports are all about matchups and utilizing matchups. This series is definitely winnable for both teams, but I think the Heat have the better matchup against the Mavericks. It's going to be close considering the fact that the Mavs have the far better bench.

I've been very critical of the Heat over the season, but they really proved me wrong against the Bulls. I rarely ever pick series to go seven, but I do think these will be six hard-fought games. Want an MVP? I think Wade gets his second one against the Mavs in the Finals. He's going to rise up and show us he is the second best player in basketball behind LeBron. Yes, I just said that Wade is better than Kobe, but that's a debate for another day.

Trying to Duplicate 2006

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Posted By: Joe Soriano - Category: NBA, Paul Pierce, Andre Iguodala, Bulls, Derrick Rose, Luol Deng, Heat, LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Mavs, Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Jason Kidd, Mark Cuban, Spurs, Thunder, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, Blazers, LaMarcus Aldridge, Lakers, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol

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2010 NBA Western Conference Finals Preview

May 17th 2011 14:28

What a postseason. Each year, the NBA Playoffs never disappoints. There's always action, storylines, suspense, upsets, and great games. This year is no different, and both series have interesting matchups. The West may be the most perplexing, because it all has to do with which team is streakier. The Heat and Bulls are the two best teams right now- I have the Bulls winning it all- but these two teams are either on or off. They're not sure things.

I haven't been impressed with the Thunder so far in the playoffs. They were terrible at times against the Grizzlies, and I don't think they are a good enough team on the road. Even if they beat the Mavs, I doubt they win the whole thing. Even against the Nuggets, the Thunder were poor at times. They got lucky in pretty much every fourth quarter of that series. Their execution in crunch time was extremely poor.

Zach Randolph destroyed them, and they won't be able to handle Dirk Nowitzki if they can't handle Randolph. Pau Gasol was destroyed by Dirk, and Gasol is a better player than Serge Ibaka. Just keep an eye on that. The Mavericks are the best shooting team left, so that presents another weapon against the Thunder.

On the other side, the Mavs don't really have anyone to counter Westbrook and Durant. They are a subpar team in terms of perimeter defense, and Corey Brewer can't do everything for them. Their interior defense is solid with Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood coming off the bench. Shawn Marion could actually counter Durant, but I can't see Durant losing that match-up. The Mavs have to get physical against him.

Russell Westbrook will start taking stupid shots if Durant is covered. I think you have to cover Durant and let Westbrook take those kinds of shots. That puts the Thunder in jeopardy, and it is a great tactic to use against the Thunder in crunch time. That's when Westbrook loves heaving off his 3-pointers.

My X-Factor in this series is Shawn Marion. He's played good defense this year, and his offensive output has been decent too. I care more about his defense in this series. He's got to be physical on Durant and push him around. He has to make Durant settle for jumpshots. Marion needs to be aggressive on the best pure scorer in the NBA. He won't win the battle, but he can decrease Durant's overall effectiveness in the series. That's really all you can ask for out of a defensive player when they are guarding one of the game's best.

I think this series comes down to offense. These are two offensive teams, but also two offensive teams that play a different brand of basketball. The Mavericks are the slower paced team that can control the tempo, while the Thunder are the quicker team. I think experience wins in a seven game series that is closer than what a few people will have you think.