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Bruce BostwickNASCAR Chase to the Sprint Cup Preview
September 14th 2008 09:02
NASCAR Chase to the Sprint Cup Preview
It’s that time of year again -- time for the NASCAR Chase to the Sprint Cup Championship. When the season started back in February at Daytona, this is what they were all fighting for: to be in the Chase. Only the top twelve in driver’s points have a shot at winning the championship. Now, 26 races later, we know who those top twelve are.
Now all that’s left between one of those drivers and a championship is ten races at ten tracks over a span of, you guessed it, ten weeks. Here is the list of races and tracks. All races will be aired on ABC.
With just ten races, it is very important to get off to a good start. Since 2004, when the Chase setup started, a driver within the top 10 has won this first race in New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson had a DNF one year and was able to overcome it to win the championship, but anyone will agree it isn’t the preferred route to the cup. Current points leader Kurt Busch didn’t do so well last year in the 10 races leading up to Johnson’s second championship. The 11 drivers behind him will need him to have some trouble this year too.
Since Busch won eight races, thus far he has 80 bonus points; this puts the rest of the field at a rather large disadvantage going in. Carl Edwards notched six wins, had 10 of his bonus points stripped, and sits just 30 points back. Jimmie Johnson started peaking the past few weeks to finish with four victories on the season and is 40 points back.
The rest of the pack has it a bit harder. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, and Jeff Burton all crossed the finish line first one time this season. This means they get just ten bonus points, which in turn puts them 70 point off the lead before the first race even starts. As for those without a single win this year, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and Matt Kenseth, all 80 points back, may not have the luxury of getting one “mulligan.” They will probably have to do well, or at least better than Busch, Edwards, and Johnson, for the entire ten weeks to have a legitimate shot. While it is certainly possible, they will need some luck on their sides, especially with tracks like Talladega, Martinsville, and Atlanta on the schedule. They will also need to prevent the three leaders from stringing wins together, as all three have done this year, including Edwards's two back-to-back wins. Johnson had a strong finish last year with four straight victories.
As you will see in the table below, Denny Hamlin has the best average finish in New Hampshire at 6.8. I don’t really think that stat will be very important on Sunday, though. There are some other factors that are behind my pick for this race. My friends would tell you it is only because he is my favorite driver, and while that is true, that isn’t why I am picking him. My pick is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. My reasoning behind the pick is as follows:
*He has experience on the track, with 18 starts;
*he has finished in the top 10 seven times, even though his average finish is just 17.8;
*he has his first championship within his sights, and I feel he will come out strong; and
*he has Hendrick technology, engines, and notes now. Hendrick cars have done well on this track with six wins between Gordon and Johnson.
I feel I must point out that my pick for the winner of the championship is either Jr. or Carl Edwards.
The table below shows how each driver has done at New Hampshire throughout their careers.
The twelve driver's in NASCAR's Chase for the Sprint Cup (image: Getty Images)
| NASCAR
Chase to the Sprint Cup Starting Standings |
|||||||||||
| Rank | Driver | Points | Behind | Starts | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | DNF | Laps Raced | Laps Led | Earnings |
| 1 | Kyle Busch | 5080 | - | 26 | 8 | 15 | 17 | 1 | 7327 | 1633 | $5,538,313 |
| 2 | Carl Edwards | 5050 | 30 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 7403 | 636 | $5,718,450 |
| 3 | Jimmie Johnson | 5040 | 40 | 26 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 1 | 7410 | 998 | $5,281,551 |
| 4 | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 5010 | 70 | 26 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 7428 | 796 | $3,642,545 |
| 5 | Clint Bowyer | 5010 | 70 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 7422 | 150 | $3,343,045 |
| 6 | Denny Hamlin | 5010 | 70 | 26 | 1 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 7036 | 700 | $4,196,879 |
| 7 | Jeff Burton | 5010 | 70 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 2 | 7164 | 74 | $4,017,351 |
| 8 | Tony Stewart | 5000 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 3 | 7112 | 555 | $4,826,897 |
| 9 | Greg Biffle | 5000 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 8 | 11 | 2 | 7238 | 341 | $3,542,814 |
| 10 | Jeff Gordon | 5000 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 9 | 12 | 4 | 7168 | 279 | $4,245,505 |
| 11 | Kevin Harvick | 5000 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 7302 | 168 | $4,047,044 |
| 12 | Matt Kenseth | 5000 | 80 | 26 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 7318 | 204 | $4,076,429 |
Now all that’s left between one of those drivers and a championship is ten races at ten tracks over a span of, you guessed it, ten weeks. Here is the list of races and tracks. All races will be aired on ABC.
| Time | Race | Track | 2007 Winner | |
| Sep.14 |
2:15 PM ET |
Sylvania 300 |
New Hampshire Motor Speedway |
Clint Bowyer |
| Sep. 21 | 2:15 PM ET | Camping World RV 400 presented by
AAA |
Dover International Speedway | Carl Edwards |
| Sep. 28 | 2:15 PM ET | Camping World RV 400 |
Kansas Speedway | Greg Biffle |
| Oct. 5 | 2:20 PM ET | AMP Energy 500 |
Talladega Superspeedway | Jeff Gordon |
| Oct. 11 | 7:40 PM ET | Bank of America 500 |
Lowe's Motor Speedway | Jeff Gordon |
| Oct. 19 | 1:45 PM ET | TUMS QuikPak 500 |
Martinsville Speedway | Jimmie Johnson |
| Oct. 26 | 2:15 PM ET | Pep Boys Auto 500 |
Atlanta Motor Speedway | Jimmie Johnson |
| Nov. 2 | 3:45 PM ET | Dickies 500 |
Texas Motor Speedway | Jimmie Johnson |
| Nov. 9 | 4:00 PM ET | Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 |
Phoenix International Raceway | Jimmie Johnson |
| Nov. 16 | 4:00 PM ET | Ford 400 |
Homestead-Miami Speedway | Matt Kenseth |
With just ten races, it is very important to get off to a good start. Since 2004, when the Chase setup started, a driver within the top 10 has won this first race in New Hampshire. Jimmie Johnson had a DNF one year and was able to overcome it to win the championship, but anyone will agree it isn’t the preferred route to the cup. Current points leader Kurt Busch didn’t do so well last year in the 10 races leading up to Johnson’s second championship. The 11 drivers behind him will need him to have some trouble this year too.
Since Busch won eight races, thus far he has 80 bonus points; this puts the rest of the field at a rather large disadvantage going in. Carl Edwards notched six wins, had 10 of his bonus points stripped, and sits just 30 points back. Jimmie Johnson started peaking the past few weeks to finish with four victories on the season and is 40 points back.
The rest of the pack has it a bit harder. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin, and Jeff Burton all crossed the finish line first one time this season. This means they get just ten bonus points, which in turn puts them 70 point off the lead before the first race even starts. As for those without a single win this year, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, Jeff Gordon, Kevin Harvick, and Matt Kenseth, all 80 points back, may not have the luxury of getting one “mulligan.” They will probably have to do well, or at least better than Busch, Edwards, and Johnson, for the entire ten weeks to have a legitimate shot. While it is certainly possible, they will need some luck on their sides, especially with tracks like Talladega, Martinsville, and Atlanta on the schedule. They will also need to prevent the three leaders from stringing wins together, as all three have done this year, including Edwards's two back-to-back wins. Johnson had a strong finish last year with four straight victories.
As you will see in the table below, Denny Hamlin has the best average finish in New Hampshire at 6.8. I don’t really think that stat will be very important on Sunday, though. There are some other factors that are behind my pick for this race. My friends would tell you it is only because he is my favorite driver, and while that is true, that isn’t why I am picking him. My pick is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. My reasoning behind the pick is as follows:
*He has experience on the track, with 18 starts;
*he has finished in the top 10 seven times, even though his average finish is just 17.8;
*he has his first championship within his sights, and I feel he will come out strong; and
*he has Hendrick technology, engines, and notes now. Hendrick cars have done well on this track with six wins between Gordon and Johnson.
I feel I must point out that my pick for the winner of the championship is either Jr. or Carl Edwards.
The table below shows how each driver has done at New Hampshire throughout their careers.
| New Hampshire Motor Speedway |
|||||||
| Driver |
Races |
Wins |
Poles |
Top 5 |
Top 10 |
Avg. Finish |
Avg. Start |
| Kyle Busch |
7 |
1 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
15.7 |
16.3 |
| Carl Edwards |
8 |
0 |
0 |
1 |
1 |
14.1 |
18.9 |
| Jimmie Johnson |
13 |
2 |
0 |
3 |
8 |
10.5 |
9.4 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
18 |
0 |
0 |
4 |
7 |
17.8 |
15.1 |
| Clint Bowyer |
5 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
22.2 |
17.6 |
| Denny Hamlin |
5 |
1 |
0 |
2 |
4 |
6.8 |
10.8 |
| Jeff Burton |
24 |
4 |
0 |
7 |
12 |
13.1 |
20.5 |
| Tony Stewart |
19 |
2 |
1 |
10 |
11 |
12.8 |
12.7 |
| Greg Biffle |
12 |
0 |
0 |
3 |
4 |
19.5 |
15.9 |
| Jeff Gordon |
27 |
3 |
5 |
12 |
15 |
11.6 |
10.3 |
| Kevin Harvick |
15 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
12.7 |
12.5 |
| Matt Kenseth |
17 |
0 |
1 |
5 |
11 |
10.9 |
18.5 |
| 64 |
| Vote |
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