Joe Soriano
O.J. Lewis2011 PSW NL MVP
November 9th 2011 15:45
To me, there really wasn't any other option as to the winner of the NL MVP (for this blog at least). The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best ballplayers out there in Matt Kemp, and I could just end the argument by talking about how he was one homer away from a 40/40 season. I won't, and that's because I like reading my own writing. No, but it actually is important to actually analyzing a player besides taking a couple of stats and naming them off. That is what evaluating a player is, in a sense, because you just take statistics and put them together. However, the important part is the last clause of the sentence; and it is what I will attempt to do. Just how good was Kemp in 2011 and why was he this good?
The best statistic at estimating a player's value is WAR, and the sabermatrician's Snickers bar has Kemp at an NL-leading 8.7 WAR. A threat on the basepaths (40), the same can't be said about his relatively poor range in the outfield. By no means does he stink in center, but aside from his arm, he really doesn't hold that much value defensively. Still, subpar play on defense doesn't take away from his overall accomplishments and versatility of Kemp on offense. Center fielders who can hit 39 home runs with an on base percentage a literal tick under .400 are extremely valuable commodities in the MLB.
Kemp's 171 wRC-plus in 2011 gives you a pretty good idea that this guy could mash. He had a HR/FB ratio that was over 20% and had an ISO of .262. Those are some gaudy numbers, and the interesting thing is that he is swinging more often despite the career high walk rate (over 10% for the first time of his career). However, Matt Kemp's strikeout rate has been in line with his career average (23.1% this season compared to 23.4% in his career). This tells us that pitchers have more respect for Kemp as a hitter, but also that Kemp was a little more patient at the plate last season.
One cause for concern is his career-high- of all seasons with at least 100 games played- in BABIP (.380). The good thing is that I'm not concerned at all, because his career BABIP is at .352. Not only that, but Matt Kemp also had the best line drive rate of his career, and that goes a long way in creating a breakout year. While Kemp is primed for a regression from his hefty .419 wOBA, he's still going to be an insanely productive CF for seasons to come. I mean, he has looked much more comfortable against changeups- and to a lesser extent, sliders- and isn't confused by pitchers changing speeds on him. The results of all these improvements, most notably the development of a consistent power stroke, have left him as one of the best ten players in baseball.
The best statistic at estimating a player's value is WAR, and the sabermatrician's Snickers bar has Kemp at an NL-leading 8.7 WAR. A threat on the basepaths (40), the same can't be said about his relatively poor range in the outfield. By no means does he stink in center, but aside from his arm, he really doesn't hold that much value defensively. Still, subpar play on defense doesn't take away from his overall accomplishments and versatility of Kemp on offense. Center fielders who can hit 39 home runs with an on base percentage a literal tick under .400 are extremely valuable commodities in the MLB.
Kemp's 171 wRC-plus in 2011 gives you a pretty good idea that this guy could mash. He had a HR/FB ratio that was over 20% and had an ISO of .262. Those are some gaudy numbers, and the interesting thing is that he is swinging more often despite the career high walk rate (over 10% for the first time of his career). However, Matt Kemp's strikeout rate has been in line with his career average (23.1% this season compared to 23.4% in his career). This tells us that pitchers have more respect for Kemp as a hitter, but also that Kemp was a little more patient at the plate last season.
One cause for concern is his career-high- of all seasons with at least 100 games played- in BABIP (.380). The good thing is that I'm not concerned at all, because his career BABIP is at .352. Not only that, but Matt Kemp also had the best line drive rate of his career, and that goes a long way in creating a breakout year. While Kemp is primed for a regression from his hefty .419 wOBA, he's still going to be an insanely productive CF for seasons to come. I mean, he has looked much more comfortable against changeups- and to a lesser extent, sliders- and isn't confused by pitchers changing speeds on him. The results of all these improvements, most notably the development of a consistent power stroke, have left him as one of the best ten players in baseball.
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