It looks like the Los Angeles Dodgers are poised to pay my 2011 NL MVP 160 million dollars over eight seasons. This is a bargain for the Dodgers, as Matt Kemp should easily be a 4.5 WAR player over that time span, and he is definitely one of the most talented players in the Majors right now.

Remember in the spring last year when the Milwaukee Brewers offered Prince Fielder a five year deal worth 100 million? And Fielder didn't even give a counter-offer? It looks like the Brewers are definitely going to move on, and it is obvious that Fielder is doing the same and really wants to test his value on the market. I believe that Fielder will get seven years and 156.5 million dollars on the open market in a deal that is similar to what Adrian Gonzalez got.

Ryan Doumit is a solid offensive catcher who is viewed as one of the best options available on the free agent market right now. Although many people don't personally like him, he isn't as bad of a player as some make him out to be. However, don't count on him signing with the Dodgers as he rejected their lowly one year deal that wasn't even worth three million dollars. They basically valued him as a replacement player and offered him less than they gave questionable outfielder Juan Rivera.

Jose Reyes says that the only way he signs with the Marlins is if Hanley Ramirez moves to third or center field. I would never move the already poor defensive player to CF, but a move to the hot corner wouldn't be the worst thing in the world for Han-Ram. I don't see the point in trading him if he doesn't move, unless of course, the package is too big to pass up on and Reyes signs on. However, that's just a bad risk, and a Reyes deal hinges on Ramirez's willingness to finally take on for the team and not kick the grounder.

"I'm as serious as my heart beats."

That interesting comment was said by former Dodgers ace Orel Hershiser when asked if he and former Dodgers star first baseman Steve Garvey were serious about becoming the owners of the unstable Los Angeles Dodgers. Although Hershisher could afford it, it will cost him somewhere between 800 million and 1.2 billion; I'm guessing the price is closer to 800 million.

As expected, quite a bit of teams are asking about acquiring young White Sox starters John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Personally, I would keep Danks and shop around Floyd only. They need to keep one of those guys in the rotation, and I would probably end up keeping Floyd in the end. I mean, anybody can be a contender in the AL Central, so why blow the better part of your rotation up?

The Dodgers may not have an owner, but they do have brains

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Posted By: Joe Soriano - Category: MLB, MLB Rumors and News, Adrian Gonzalez, White Sox, Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Jose Reyes, Marlins, Hanley Ramirez, Brewers, Prince Fielder, Ryan Doumit, Dodgers, Matt Kemp, Juan Rivera, Orel Hershiser, Steve Garvey

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2011 PSW NL MVP

November 9th 2011 15:45

To me, there really wasn't any other option as to the winner of the NL MVP (for this blog at least). The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best ballplayers out there in Matt Kemp, and I could just end the argument by talking about how he was one homer away from a 40/40 season. I won't, and that's because I like reading my own writing. No, but it actually is important to actually analyzing a player besides taking a couple of stats and naming them off. That is what evaluating a player is, in a sense, because you just take statistics and put them together. However, the important part is the last clause of the sentence; and it is what I will attempt to do. Just how good was Kemp in 2011 and why was he this good?

The best statistic at estimating a player's value is WAR, and the sabermatrician's Snickers bar has Kemp at an NL-leading 8.7 WAR. A threat on the basepaths (40), the same can't be said about his relatively poor range in the outfield. By no means does he stink in center, but aside from his arm, he really doesn't hold that much value defensively. Still, subpar play on defense doesn't take away from his overall accomplishments and versatility of Kemp on offense. Center fielders who can hit 39 home runs with an on base percentage a literal tick under .400 are extremely valuable commodities in the MLB.

Kemp's 171 wRC-plus in 2011 gives you a pretty good idea that this guy could mash. He had a HR/FB ratio that was over 20% and had an ISO of .262. Those are some gaudy numbers, and the interesting thing is that he is swinging more often despite the career high walk rate (over 10% for the first time of his career). However, Matt Kemp's strikeout rate has been in line with his career average (23.1% this season compared to 23.4% in his career). This tells us that pitchers have more respect for Kemp as a hitter, but also that Kemp was a little more patient at the plate last season.

One cause for concern is his career-high- of all seasons with at least 100 games played- in BABIP (.380). The good thing is that I'm not concerned at all, because his career BABIP is at .352. Not only that, but Matt Kemp also had the best line drive rate of his career, and that goes a long way in creating a breakout year. While Kemp is primed for a regression from his hefty .419 wOBA, he's still going to be an insanely productive CF for seasons to come. I mean, he has looked much more comfortable against changeups- and to a lesser extent, sliders- and isn't confused by pitchers changing speeds on him. The results of all these improvements, most notably the development of a consistent power stroke, have left him as one of the best ten players in baseball.

MVP

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Posted By: Joe Soriano - Category: MLB, Dodgers, Matt Kemp, MLB Analysis

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8/2011 Center Fielder Rankings

August 6th 2011 14:07

One of the premier positions in baseball is center field. First off, it is the second most important position on the diamond- after shortstop- and many of the game's greats were center fielders. Below are my rankings of the center fielders in baseball today. (Minimum 750 plate appearances as a center fielder since 2009)

1. Rangers Josh Hamilton
2. Dodgers Matt Kemp
3. Phillies Shane Victorino
4. Yankees Curtis Granderson
5. Red Sox Jacoby Ellsbury
6. Rockies Carlos Gonzalez
7. Pirates Andrew McCutchen
8. Braves Michael Bourn
9. Diamondbacks Chris Young
10. Yankees Brett Gardner
11. Orioles Adam Jones
12. Blue Jays Colby Rasmus
13. Reds Drew Stubbs
14. Twins Denard Span
15. Angels Torii Hunter
16. Indians Grady Sizemore
17. Rays B.J. Upton
18. Giants Carlos Beltran
19. Mets Angel Pagan
20. Giants Andres Torres
21. White Sox Alex Rios
22. Mariners Franklin Gutierrez
23. Braves Nate McLouth
24. Cubs Marlon Byrd
25. Brewers Nyjer Morgan
26. Angels Vernon Wells
27. Tigers Austin Jackson
28. Athletics Coco Crisp
29. Brewers Carlos Gomez
30. Blue Jays Rajai Davis

The Braves got a really nice deal when they got the eighth best center fielder in baseball for a a handful of decent prospects. They really needed a leadoff hitter and a better CF than McLouth. I still have McLouth in the top 25, but that's really not saying much. After all, there are only 30 starting centerfielders in the game. These are all useful players- they are starting-caliber center fielders- but some of them have a shorter shelf-life on this list than others.

The Yankees have two very good center fielders in Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson. But I honestly think that Gardner is better suited for the starting role in center, because Gardner is the best outfielder in baseball- in terms of fielding- and Granderson is only an average fielder.

Josh Hamilton is the best center fielder in baseball, and I don't buy the argument that he isn't good enough in center. His fielding rating from Fan Graphs in center is far better than Kemp's. Hamilton is actually a good defensive player, but people can't see past the stereotype of big mashers being solid defensive players in center. Kemp is fast, but man does he make some mistakes out there in center. It's a tough call, but Hamilton's RC of 142 makes it a win for the Rangers' CF.

Walk-Off Single in 10th

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8/4 MLB News: A-Rod and poker

August 4th 2011 13:53

I thought Alex Rodriguez was just about done with his shenanigans, and then this came up. We've always known that A-Rod has had some gambling problems- namely poker- but this is the farthest it's ever gone. He was in trouble with the league for gambling in 2005, and then he held a charity poker game. The current allegations against Rodriguez are far more serious with this incident.

Bud Selig has definitely had enough of A-Rod's circus in the past few years, and this is just another major headache for the commissioner. It's a known fact that Rodriguez is going to be suspended, but the question really is the length of his suspension. Because he's done this before, I suggest that Rodriguez is suspended for the same length as players who take PEDs; 50 days.

The punishment stated above is fair for both parties. Selig needs to come up with a Stern- geddit- punishment here, not only because Rodriguez needs to be punished, but also because Selig has a reputation for being weak in his rulings for the most part. This is his chance to make a big statement, and this is, of course, if A-Rod really did take part in these celebrity poker games.

I realize that playing poker isn't a serious offense, but A-Rod ignored Stern warnings from Selig about his involvement in gambling in 2005. He was told not to play poker again, but Rodriguez did not listen. Maybe 50 games is a little harsh, but it would be sweet revenge for Selig. I mean, it's not like A-Rod doesn't deserve it for all he's done in the last ten years or so.

Jacoby Ellsbury's second straight walk-off hit- for a home run no less- has people buzzing about his MVP case. I think Ellsbury's been the third best player in the AL this season, but he hasn't been the best player on his team. No, that honor belongs to Dustin Pedroia. Not only has he hit well, but he's been incredible in the field. I can't even begin to describe how well he's been in the field though. My MVP has to be Jose Bautista just over Pedroia, because he was mashing at the beginning of the season. He's still going strong, and his numbers resemble Bonds's in the early 2000s. Nobody wants to pitch to him.

As for the NL, I still think Jose Reyes has been slightly better than Matt Kemp. CC Sabathia has been outstanding this season, and he and Roy Halladay are unquestionably the two Cy Young winners. Guys like Justin Verlander have had great seasons, but no pitcher can touch the dominance of Sabathia and Halladay this season.