Two Guys Sports
Bruce BostwickRoger Federer vs. Rafael Nadal history and prediction
June 8th 2008 12:59
Rafa Nadal holds the advantage over Roger Federer, especially on clay.
It is so hard to believe that two men could be ranked #1 and #2 without any change for 149 consecutive weeks. You would think that at some point somewhere along the line they would switch places or drop to #3 occasionally. That just isn’t the case this time. Roger Federer has been the World #1 for 227 straight weeks, yes that is a record. Rafael Nada lhs been stuck in his #2 ranking for 149 straight weeks now.
Many think Federer might be the best male tennis player of all time, they stop short of that tag for one big reason, he is missing one event in his career Grand Slam, the same event he missed in the three years that he won the other three events in the same year, The French Open.
Rafael Nadal could easily have been World #1 for the better portion of those 149 weeks at #2, if not for Federer. He is most likely the best tennis player on clay, not only today, but of all time. His biggest setback is the only Grand Slam event he has won is on the clay of Roland Garros. In four tries at the Australian the furthest he has advanced has been the semis. At the U.S. he has tried five times, only reaching the quarters. He has come close at Wimbledon, in four attempts he has made the finals twice, 2006, and 2007. Would you like to guess who beat him in those finals? Exactly right, it was Roger Federer, who has won an astounding five straight in England, tied for the modern day record with Bjorn Borg. Nadal has won the last three French Opens, beating Federer in the finals of the last two, and in the semis of the one before those two. If Nadal wins again this year he will tied the modern day record for the most French titles in a row, four, a record also held by Bjorn Borg.
Their match up today marks the first time that the same two men have faced each other in the finals of a Grand Slam event in three consecutive years.
These two greats haven’t only met in Grand Slam events either. In all they have had 16 matches.
They have met on hard courts five different times. The first two times at the Miami Masters in 2004, and 2005, they would split those two meetings. In 2006 it was at the Dubai Tennis Championships which Nadal won. The last two meetings on the hard court have been at the Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai, China in 2006, and 2007. Federer won both of those meetings in two sets.
Hard Court Record: Federer 3 – Nadal 2
They have only faced each other on grass twice. The keen observer who has been paying attention as they’ve read this will see where I am going here. Both matches on grass were in the finals at Wimbledon the past two years, and yes Federer has won them both.
Grass Court Record: Federer 2 – Nadal 0
That leaves the clay. In a minute you will understand how much Nadal loves the clay. They have met on the clay a total of nine times. Let’s start with the Monte Carlo Masters, they have met in the finals there for the past three years. In 2006 Rafa needed four sets to beat Roger, but since he has needed just two sets, he has won all three in Monte Carlo. They met in the finals of the Rome Masters in 2006, Nadal needed five sets that time, but still won. That leaves three at Roland Garros, and two at the Hamburg Masters. In 2008 Rafa won in the finals at Hamburg. In 2007 though, Federer actually won in three sets, it is the only time to date that Nadal has lost to him on the clay. As you already know Nadal won the three matches at Roland Garros, twice in the final, once in the semis.
Clay Court Record: Nadal 8 – Federer 1
Overall head to head record: Nadal 10 – Federer 6
Not that it has anything to do with their head to head match ups, but at the 2007 Rome Masters they faced off in first round doubles play. Rafa and his partner Carlos Moya won in two sets. As you know from above, the Rome Masters is played on clay too. In May of last year they faced off in what was billed as The Battle of Surfaces. This match was played on a court which cost $1.63 million to build, and was half grass, half clay. Rafa won his match too, but it was played in front of his home crowd in Palma de Mallorca.
Federer’s lone win on the clay in Hamburg actually broke Nadal’s streak of 81 consecutive matches won on clay. That is a record for the open era for the most matches won by a male on a single surface. Rafa has not lost on clay since then either. To make Federer’s job in today’s match even harder, Rafa has NEVER lost a match on the clay of Roland Garros, NEVER. He is 27-0 at the French Open.
The road to the finals for these two greats has been a bit different. Federer in his six wins needed four sets to win three of them, and lost four or more games in nine of the eighteen sets he won. Nadal on the other hand has not lost a single set in his six matches, and he gave up four or more games in just four of the eighteen sets.
I do believe the deck is just stacked way to much against Roger Federer. At the start two weeks ago I thought maybe he had a shot, but seeing just how well Rafa has played, and the amount Roger has “struggled” (I only say struggled meaning in comparison to Rafa, Roger by no means really struggled.) I just don’t think he can get it done. I say Rafa wins in four sets, let’s say 6-3, 6(5)-7(7), 6-3, 6-4. Again, regardless of who wins or loses it should be a great match to watch, as it always is. Tennis lovers will be the biggest winners today with a much longer match than yesterday’s women’s final.
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