Joe Soriano
O.J. Lewis8/2011 Team Scope: Boston Red Sox
August 5th 2011 15:31
Even though it's tough to say it, the Boston Red Sox are the best team in baseball. Their pitching may be too thin, but their hitting is incredible. Only the Yankees can compete with these guys offensively, and the Red Sox have three players who are getting serious MVP recognition right now; Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Adrian Gonzalez.
I must say this; Pedroia has been nothing short of spectacular in 2011. His WAR is at 6.7, he's stolen 22 bases, his RC is 148, he is hitting .311, Pedroia is walking more than he is striking out, and he has been flawless on defense. While Jose Bautista is still my pick for MVP, Pedroia is just a hair under him right now.
Jacoby Ellsbury is third in my MVP rankings, and man has he been playing great ball this year. Not only has he stole 31 bases and scored 83 runs; but he's also hitting .319/.376/.514 with an RC of 147. Ellsbury has also played some great D in center this season, but Pedroia's level of play in the field has just been unattainable.
With a 165 RC , Adrian Gonzalez has been the best hitter on the Sox, and he is fifth in my MVP rankings. A-Gone has driven in 91 runs, and his triple slash (.356/.416/.568) is certainly mirrors that of an MVP-type season. He's been nothing short of the lofty expectations put on him in the preseason.
There's no point in continuing to heap praise on the Red Sox offense, so I might as well just move on to the pitching. Injuries have certainly played a huge role for the Sox pitching-wise, but there is one pitcher who has really taken the lead this season.
For some reason, Josh Beckett has great seasons when the year is an odd-number, but he then disappoints when it is an even-numbered year. Beckett is reaping the rewards of 2011, and his 2.20 ERA leads the staff. However, he is getting extremely lucky (38.6 GB%, 83.6 LOB%, 6.8% HR/FB, .222 BABIP) so regression is almost certain- if not this year, then 2012.
With Beckett, normalization in statistics often comes year by year; hence the huge gap in play in even and odd numbered years. Still, there's no reason that his ERA should climb over 3.00; but I would expect it to be a lot closer to that number than what it is currently at.
Jon Lester is going to keep pitching as he is now, so don't expect the ace's 3.17 ERA to drastically increase or decrease. Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard are easily the best 1-2 bullpen punch in baseball. Without one of the two though, this bullpen could easily be much worse. Although Bard has the better statistics, Paps has been pitching better this season.
Most Boston fans can't wait until Papelbon is traded and a new era in closing can begin in Boston. A trade would certainly make sense financially, but many fans think that Papelbon isn't pitching well enough. That simply isn't the case, and I am sick of hearing the same ignorant drivel beat into my head As Jerry says, "It's like getting beat by a bag of oranges." It's just stupid.
I get that Paps's 3.35 ERA is less than ideal, but the man's FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) is just 1.87. His raw stats are incredible! He's striking out 12.22 helpless hitters every nine innings, and he's only giving out 1.58 walks per nine too. Throw that in with a .327 BABIP, and you get a guy who is pitching much better than his ERA.
However, there is always the darkside; Tony knows that much. Papelbon's HR/FB ratio is too low, and he only gets grounders a third of the time. I still think he is pitching much better than 3.35, but his "true ERA" is probably around 2.50. Bard's "true ERA" is probably around 2.75. Both guys are pitching great, but Bard is getting a little bit too lucky.
I must say this; Pedroia has been nothing short of spectacular in 2011. His WAR is at 6.7, he's stolen 22 bases, his RC is 148, he is hitting .311, Pedroia is walking more than he is striking out, and he has been flawless on defense. While Jose Bautista is still my pick for MVP, Pedroia is just a hair under him right now.
Jacoby Ellsbury is third in my MVP rankings, and man has he been playing great ball this year. Not only has he stole 31 bases and scored 83 runs; but he's also hitting .319/.376/.514 with an RC of 147. Ellsbury has also played some great D in center this season, but Pedroia's level of play in the field has just been unattainable.
With a 165 RC , Adrian Gonzalez has been the best hitter on the Sox, and he is fifth in my MVP rankings. A-Gone has driven in 91 runs, and his triple slash (.356/.416/.568) is certainly mirrors that of an MVP-type season. He's been nothing short of the lofty expectations put on him in the preseason.
There's no point in continuing to heap praise on the Red Sox offense, so I might as well just move on to the pitching. Injuries have certainly played a huge role for the Sox pitching-wise, but there is one pitcher who has really taken the lead this season.
For some reason, Josh Beckett has great seasons when the year is an odd-number, but he then disappoints when it is an even-numbered year. Beckett is reaping the rewards of 2011, and his 2.20 ERA leads the staff. However, he is getting extremely lucky (38.6 GB%, 83.6 LOB%, 6.8% HR/FB, .222 BABIP) so regression is almost certain- if not this year, then 2012.
With Beckett, normalization in statistics often comes year by year; hence the huge gap in play in even and odd numbered years. Still, there's no reason that his ERA should climb over 3.00; but I would expect it to be a lot closer to that number than what it is currently at.
Jon Lester is going to keep pitching as he is now, so don't expect the ace's 3.17 ERA to drastically increase or decrease. Jonathan Papelbon and Daniel Bard are easily the best 1-2 bullpen punch in baseball. Without one of the two though, this bullpen could easily be much worse. Although Bard has the better statistics, Paps has been pitching better this season.
Most Boston fans can't wait until Papelbon is traded and a new era in closing can begin in Boston. A trade would certainly make sense financially, but many fans think that Papelbon isn't pitching well enough. That simply isn't the case, and I am sick of hearing the same ignorant drivel beat into my head As Jerry says, "It's like getting beat by a bag of oranges." It's just stupid.
I get that Paps's 3.35 ERA is less than ideal, but the man's FIP (Fielder Independent Pitching) is just 1.87. His raw stats are incredible! He's striking out 12.22 helpless hitters every nine innings, and he's only giving out 1.58 walks per nine too. Throw that in with a .327 BABIP, and you get a guy who is pitching much better than his ERA.
However, there is always the darkside; Tony knows that much. Papelbon's HR/FB ratio is too low, and he only gets grounders a third of the time. I still think he is pitching much better than 3.35, but his "true ERA" is probably around 2.50. Bard's "true ERA" is probably around 2.75. Both guys are pitching great, but Bard is getting a little bit too lucky.
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